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didnt want to ask this quesiton in the general discussion area.
If CAP were for sale, which its not, it would be worth:
1. Whatever we would agree to sell it for
2. Whatever a qualified buyer would be willing to pay for itSomewhere in the middle of that band (as buyers and sellers never agree)
:la-de-da:A related question to the Prof and other CAPsters.
(not specifically about CAP) …
In the past people have suggested a figure of around 18x monthly revenue might have been a reasonable number for portal pricing.
So if you’re making 10K per month then a figure of 150K to 200K was reasonable.
Do you think that it would be fair to say the the current legislative changes in the US, and uncertainty in Canada and Europe effectively make the whole gambling portal area too unstable for any reliable market?
After all we’ve seen publicly quoted companies lose between 50% to 85% of their market value.
Do you have any reliable guides to pricing at the moment – from what you may have seen and heard on recent sales or site brokerage? I know that some people out there must have bought and sold.
Are you prepared to share general details ?
:help:Hi,
well following the formula of 18x monthly – 50% – 85% (worst case scenario … just going by what you stated) would then be a logical IMHO formula for gaging a site’s worth.
that said, I’m thinking to myself would I take that formula’s end result for the price of all my sites …
damn that’s a tough call. the thing is … and what I keep telling myself is that if I keep the sites then in a couple month’s time they’ll have earned what I’d have recieved for them if I sold them outright.
I’m not much of a business man but does that make any sense at all?
in other words say I made $10k a month and then figuring 180k – 85% … well you can see what I mean. If I had 2 decent month’s earnings it’d almost be the same as if I had sold the sites … but I’d still have the sites at the end of the two months time.
I thought of this a long time ago (5 or 6 months back) when I became aware of a couple of friends who sold out and took this into consideration. (also added into my thinking was that even though I’d suppose to have residual earnings still coming in … its my experience that once you take down a program’s links that your residuals will quickly fall off – the one time I found that not to be true was of all places … with referback who actually had greatly increased earnings over such a period of time that I finally felt they had earned their way back onto my sites … and just as surprisingly … my earnings fell off again after I put them back up. Now I would normally associate that with a program trying to buy its way back onto my sites but I kept their links off far too long for that to have been the case. I still find that to be quite a mystery the way it worked out but no matter what … RB paid me enough while I didn’t have their links up to have shut me up about ever accusing them of not treating affiliates right. I can say that much about the whole incident.
to quote the Grateful Dead … “what a long strange trip its been”.
Quote:In the past people have suggested a figure of around 18x monthly revenue might have been a reasonable number for portal pricing.So if you’re making 10K per month then a figure of 150K to 200K was reasonable.
Do you think that it would be fair to say the the current legislative changes in the US, and uncertainty in Canada and Europe effectively make the whole gambling portal area too unstable for any reliable market?
The figures above are usually related to a brick and mortar type business with a verfiable record of income. Due to the nature of affiliate marketing this was difficult to quantify and was generally not stable unless you operated purely as a media seller and had contracts or insertion orders that made the monthly or quarterly revenues somewhat stable. In todays enviroment any previous numbers would be worthless and without merit for valuation of a property.
Now key factors are more likely related to search engine positioning of the portal, its monthly traffic and the demographics of the visiting audience. I have no idea HOW someone would place a value on a portal if it didnt include the affiliate accounts. It would basically come back to “Its worth what someone will pay”
Quote:After all we’ve seen publicly quoted companies lose between 50% to 85% of their market value.Do you have any reliable guides to pricing at the moment – from what you may have seen and heard on recent sales or site brokerage? I know that some people out there must have bought and sold.
Nope, there is no reliable formula that I am aware of and it doesnt seem possible that there even COULD be one. There just isnt enough data available to evaluate. The other problem is we are STILL in a state of flux with regards to payment processing, ewallets and banking. This potentially wont fully stablizie for up to 270 odd days.
Have sites been sold? Yes
Was there a RELIABLE formula used to establish their values? Nope, I dont believe there was.
What did people pay? I dont know each sale, but the figures I have heard have been extremely low (though thats MY perception not true market value)
Quote:Are you prepared to share general details ?I dont think many buyers and sellers will share exact details and if they did I think we would find the prices are all over the place and show no real pattern.
With all the uncertainty surrounding the online gambling biz I would say that the 18x precious earning would not apply. Without selling your affiliate accounts with your sites I would say that the value these days would be 18x previous earnings with at least a 50% discount or more. It really comes down to a gamble right now how long will affiliates still be able to make money in this biz. Some still our confident that there will be some casinos top market to US players. Some are still confindent that there will be a way for players to make deposits, but will they be able to. With all the uncertainty in this business right now I beleive each person has to choose what they feel is best for them now and in the long run.
I see a big mess.
Some sellers are asking prices that are inflated even for pre-law conditions.
Some are practically throwing sites away.
Buyers, even though plentyful, are cautious and leery and are looking at things from a very different perspective now.
Criteria I see being brought into the equation:
Google rankings (not really so much PR)
Number of ranking keywords
Number of visitors per keyword
number of visitors in general
Geographic distribution of visitors
Visitor referrers (i.e. search engines, links, PPC etc)
repeat visitor count
# of full pages of original content, and is this content still relevant or does it need to be changed to adjust to current geographic offerings?
Age of site
look and feel of site
Monthly income over last 6 months
Monthly income since the law passed
Accounts included?
and if so which softwares are paying? What geographic group of players do they accept now?and more.
And as far as CAP goes – it’s outside the box as it is totally unique.
TheGooner wrote:In the past people have suggested a figure of around 18x monthly revenue might have been a reasonable number for portal pricing.I only see 12x monthly profit, and that is usually only with very stable websites. Anything that relies on search traffic seems to fetch 6x and higher. Nobody really considers search traffic stable anymore.
The other things is… when you are trying to sell a site to a bunch of webmasters, you need to be offering something for cheaper than they can do themselves (or pay someone to do).
With things in the US up in the air, buying anything gambling related is even more risky. Risk=reward sometimes and we’ll have to wait and see.
Web statistics for me means nothing. Do you know you can edit them? Awstats, webalizer, etc. All can be edited. They are just text files.
If you buy or sell something based on that, it’s your call.
In the last years I’ve bought and sold domains and sites. I don’t even care their search engine ranks because everything can change in a flash. They can drop next week, or I can buy a lousy site and make a great one out of it.
So what do I buy? Brands. Ways of making my visitors trust me, and of further promotion of my network.
Also I would never sell a site for 12 months profit. Why, for that I’ll just wait, and that site will pay me, and pay me for years to come, not 1 year!
Did Google bought YouTube for 12 month’s profit? YouTube apparently lost more than 1 million per month, so how is that? YouTube had to pay for Google to buy them? No…
And what about the thousands of domains that are sold everyday, with no business, and no profit? But they are sold, and some for many, many thousands.
So, like Professor said, the worth of a site is whatever the buyer and seller agrees to. :capmiami:
internet properties, be it domains or websites are indeed
worth what a buyer and seller agree upon and the price
fluctuates minute by minute just like in the stock market …
in other words its a moving target and people bet on where
the target will move to next.
:popcorn:
I’ve seen good sites loosing all their values because Google started ranking them lower than usual. This also happened to me.
One of my communities had almost all of it’s pages in the top 3 for many good Google searches during many months. When suddenly next Google update (we call it dance) came, they went to the second page. We didn’t do anything.
So how will you value a business based on your current rankings? You never know where it will be next week. And if the rankings go down, the profit will also go.
So I would never buy a business based on those attributes. I would buy something I “believe” I could upgrade for better use, using it to improve my existing business. This is what Google, Yahoo and MSN do.
The keyword here is “believe”.
Webmaster7 wrote:Also I would never sell a site for 12 months profit. Why, for that I’ll just wait, and that site will pay me, and pay me for years to come, not 1 year!In a lot of ways I agree with you. The big problem is the information assymetry involved. If it’s your site, you know exactly what the stats are and why. If it isn’t your site, you have to wonder what information is being omitted or modified.
I also agree with your comments on brands.
I think the best route to go is to identify a site that isn’t being monetized properly. In that scenario, your projected multiple is better than what the seller sees. Those usually aren’t the sites where the seller says “this could be making a lot of money with a little more effort.” The sites I’m talking about, the seller usually thinks they are humming along just fine.
Exactly
I’ve analysed many businesses that could be giving a much bigger profit, with just one or two changes. I don’t even care for their 12 month profit, only if it interests me, to get a better deal.
So in my opinion, this x months profit is only interesting to get a bargain deal.
I know that we have to estimate somehow, but I do it in a different way.Site-Reference.com (Web Owner Forum and Newsletter (10093) – Price: 225,000 (Sold)
Source xxxhttp://www.sugarondemand.com/ebizbrokers/web/listings.html
In a free gambling market my guess is this forum is well above in marketable price.
If that sale price is real (wow…), then CAP would be worth many times more… you can’t compare a generic SEO site, with what CAP is.
Thanks for this information!
