Anyone who is wondering whether or not prediction markets are an actual threat to traditional gaming interests should have a talk with Nevada Congresswoman Dina Titus (D). Last week Titus sent a letter to Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Acting Chairwoman Caroline D. Pham voicing her concerns about prediction markets and their impact on regulated sports betting.
In the letter, which was posted on X, Titus gets straight to the point saying, “This year, platforms have started to offer contracts on sporting events. Event contracts on sporting events bring this relatively new industry directly into conflict with state-regulated gaming operators.” Many of those state-regulated gaming operators operate in her district and bring billions of dollars in revenue to her state.
That said, Titus brings up some very legitimate arguments about the back door route prediction market operators are taking into the regulated sports betting market. “Permitting prediction contracts on sporting events has several troubling effects that the Commission should address before issuing any rulemaking. Prediction contracts on sports create a backdoor way to legalize sports betting in states that have not authorized it. The regulation and legalization of sports betting have traditionally been dealt with at the state level in the United States”
Titus also points out that prediction markets offer wagers/contracts on events that regulated operators couldn’t (and probably wouldn’t) offer, such as whether or Luigi Mangione will be convicted of murder.
Anyone challenging the prediction market to the CTFC will definitely be facing an uphill battle. The current US President’s nominee to head the CTFC, Brian Quintenz is currently serving on the board of Kalshi, one of the biggest prediction market operators in the country. Quintenz is also good friends with the current US President’s son, who also serves as a Kalshi “advisor”.