Betting markets across the world adjusting to the daily twists and turns of the upcoming US presidential election with a major shift in favor of the challenger, Joe Biden. Biden is pulling at around -200 in most markets. The incumbent, however is at +188 this week in hat is amounting to a major crash. Of course very few people who can legally vote in the US election can also legally wager on the election.
Election wagering is big business in some regulated markets, particularly the UK, where there’s plenty of action on the US election. But the market is not supporting a Trump victory and the incumbent is now in the unenviable spot of being a serious underdog just two weeks out from Election Day.
Most of Trump’s wounds seem to be self-inflicted, but sports betting markets are no doubt picking up on the fact that the incumbent’s campaign is suffering major cash problems that are inhibiting his ability to get his message out. This is despite the fact, as our colleagues at CalvinAyre.com point out, that Trump just received at $75 million donation from casino owner and right wing activist Sheldon Adelson.
But unless an American is living abroad, there is no place in the US regulated market for wagering on elections. This ruling actually comes at the state level as there is no federal law banning it. The idea from the states is that betting markets could influence real life outcomes and encourage corruption. That’s the same argument that was made against regulated sports betting, but American politics are one of the few entities that can make college athletics look like good, clean fun.
Either way, the bookies have spoken and Trump is clearly the dark horse in this race.