G.O.P. Facing Tougher Battle for Congress

WASHINGTON — The economic upheaval is threatening to topple Republican Congressional candidates, putting more Senate and House seats within Democratic reach less than a month before the elections, lawmakers and campaign strategists say.

Top campaign officials for both parties, pollsters and independent experts say the intense focus on the economic turmoil and last week’s bailout vote have combined to rapidly expand a Democratic advantage in Congressional contests. Analysts now predict a Democratic surge on a scale that seemed unlikely just weeks ago, with even some Republicans in traditional strongholds fighting for their political careers, and Democratic leaders dreaming of ironclad majorities.

In North Carolina, Senator Elizabeth Dole, a former Republican presidential contender and cabinet member, is teetering. In Kentucky, the opponent of the Senate Republican leader, Mitch McConnell, has drawn even in some polls, though Republicans say they believe he will win.

In the House, Democrats say they could capture a dozen of the 26 Republican seats left open by retirements, and challengers are closing in on Republican incumbents in Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Michigan, Nevada, New York and elsewhere.

“The last week has severely damaged Republican candidates,” said Stuart Rothenberg, a nonpartisan analyst who predicts that Democrats could gain as many as six to nine Senate seats and 25 to 30 House seats. “Everything points to warning signals for Republicans.”

If such projections by Mr. Rothenberg and others are realized, it would push Senate Democrats tantalizingly close to the filibuster-proof 60-vote majority that has eluded Senate leaders since the late 1970s. While the environment could change again in the remaining weeks, recent polling suggests a fundamental shift, with Republicans absorbing more of the blame for the economic uncertainty.

At the same time, the political arms of Congressional Republicans are being outspent — their House organization recently borrowed $8 million — and have fewer targets, with only a handful of Democrats in Florida, Louisiana, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Texas and Wisconsin and in potential trouble.

Republicans are understandably nervous.

Senator John Ensign of Nevada, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said he was encouraging candidates to “stay positive” and “run like you are 10 points down,” which in some cases they are. “You don’t have to scare people this election cycle,” Mr. Ensign said. “As far as our candidates, they know to take this seriously.”

Strategists for both parties say Republican House and Senate candidates are being hurt by the dip in support for Senator John McCain at the top of the ticket, frustrating Republicans who had initially viewed Mr. McCain as a strong asset who could appeal to independents and even moderate Democrats and protect Republicans in a tough year.

Republicans say they could still limit losses by arguing to voters that Democrats would pursue a tax-heavy agenda if they were to strengthen their grip on Washington and by pointing to Democratic fault in the economic situation.

“Seize every opportunity to hold Democrats accountable for their role in creating the economic crisis,” Representative John A. Boehner of Ohio, the Republican leader, urged his colleagues in a memorandum distributed Wednesday.

But the numbers illustrate a stark challenge for Republicans. In the House, 23 seats held by Republicans are generally rated tossups and 4 others are leaning Democratic; just 8 Democratic seats fall into the tossup category and one, now held by Representative Nick Lampson in the Houston area, is rated likely to change parties. In the Senate, one Republican seat — Virginia — is considered safely in the Democratic column, and Alaska and New Mexico are considered leaning Democratic. Five states — Colorado, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Oregon — are tossups.

“We’re doing extremely well in places we didn’t expect to do well,” Senator Charles E. Schumer of New York, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said Wednesday.

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